Methodology — How We Measure
Backtested segment selection, live grading against real results, and a published track record — wins and losses alike.
Each of our named consensus segments qualified on a multi-season backtest (3–5 seasons, depending on the sport's available data) with positive cumulative ROI. That's a qualification gate, not a forecast. A backtested-profitable pattern can — and frequently does — go negative on any given live month or quarter. We publish the live result regardless.
Every prediction the engine fires is logged at qualification time, frozen at its first-seen side and odds. The grader matches each pick to the actual result the next morning. Live ROI on /track-record reflects the rolling 30-day record. Sample sizes are small; expect heavy variance. We publish wins AND losses — that's the entire point.
Grading conventions
- Frozen-line policy. A qualified pick is a placed wager at its first-seen side and odds. Later line moves never rewrite it.
- Next-morning settlement. Results are fetched from official sources and matched to picks automatically; ungraded picks are surfaced, never silently dropped.
- Tamper-evident record. Every graded event is chained into an append-only, hash-linked ledger. The current ledger root is public in the site footer and verifiable at any time.
Live coverage today (6)
- NFL — Engine live; picks return when scheduled games appear.
- NBA — Live.
- MLB — Live.
- NHL — Live.
- NCAA Football — Engine live; picks return when the season begins.
- UFC / MMA — Live. The Anvil / Iron Lock / Vice Grip tier system.
Additional leagues (including soccer and tennis) have engines built and are in private model validation. They will appear here when that review completes.
Champion / Challenger A/B framework
Every production model has a shadow challenger that proposes a refinement. The public /challengers page shows how each challenger is performing vs its champion, in real time, with full promotion-gate breakdown. This is how we calibrate — visibly.
See live challenger comparison →Sample size matters. Live ROI on a 30-day window is noise — single-pick swings can move the headline 1–2 pp. Backtest pedigree is our pre-publication filter; live ROI is the audit trail. Read both. Sports betting outcomes are random in the short run; even a profitable strategy will spend significant time underwater.
No guarantees. We do not guarantee outcomes. Past outcomes are not indicative of future outcomes.
For information only.We're not a licensed financial advisor and we don't accept wagers. Picks are statistical analysis intended for entertainment + research. See /disclaimer and /terms for full legal.